[sdenton4]

Curiously, Moore's law was predictable enough over decades that you could actually plan for the speed of next year's hardware quite reliably.

For LLMs, we don't even know how to reliably measure performance, much less plan for expected improvements.

[mikeyouse]

Moores law became less of a prediction and more of a product road map as time went on. It helped coordinate investment and expectations across the entire industry so everyone involved had the same understanding of timelines and benchmarks. I fully believe more investment would’ve ‘bent the curve’ of the trend line but everyone was making money and there wasn’t a clear benefit to pushing the edge further.

[epicureanideal]

Or maybe it pushed everyone to innovate faster than they otherwise would’ve? I’m very interested to hear your reasoning for the other case though, and I am not strongly committed to the opposite view, or either view for that matter.