[drexlspivey]

If there is a better predictor than what is implied by the market then someone could make money on it. Hence the odds tend to be pretty accurate (with enough volume) because obvious edges like that tend to go to zero. A good example of that was the last election where people with access to private polls betted heavily and shifted the market one way.

[seizethecheese]

This comment appears to be downvoted for ideological reasons? To me it seems manifestly true. The comment isn’t saying the market is perfect, just that it tends towards the best estimate because of incentives.