[seizethecheese]

These imputed opinions tend to do a better job than traditional news. On election night, polymarket was ahead of the news channels every step of the way.

Edit: to be clear, I’m referring to polymarket essentially “calling” each swing state well before the networks did. I’m not just referring to the overall outcome.

[hnburnsy]

DDHQ was also significantly ahead of the large media, and seemed to be what lead some of the moves in the betting markets. Seems like anyone at DDHQ with the fore-knowledge of the race calling could have easily front ran the betting markets. Same with Nate Silver and his daily releases. In the back of my mind I also wonder about that last minute Iowa pollster who released an outlier poll.

[hnburnsy]

Any the folks running the NY Times needle.

[fn-mote]

Making these statements after the fact is tricky.

Very tricky.

I would be interested in a blog post explaining it.

The classical fallacy is attributing skill to someone who has successfully predicted 10 coin flips (or market trends) in a row, ignoring the fact that there were many other people making different predictions and there was always going to be one of them who was successful.

[seizethecheese]

Of course this is true, and the observation is underpowered. However, on election night it wasn’t just about being right it was about digesting information in real time and promulgating information faster. For example, polymarket had trump at like 99% likelihood of winning when the networks were still playing “horse race”.

[galleywest200]

I am not sure what that has to do with calling elections. The Associated Press calls who wins, not some random person with $5 to throw away.

[jpadkins]

The AP does not in fact call who wins. They publish their opinion, some people trust the AP to be accurate (or not!). The election is only "called" when all the states have certified their results and the US Congress has accepted those certifications. That happens early in the new year.

[seizethecheese]

Polymarket had each state at above 95% likelihood of trump well ahead of the networks suggesting he was winning each state. It’s not just calling winner, it’s ingesting information faster