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by sixstringtheory 589 days ago
Not everything runs on electricity today. You can’t just snap your fingers and replace millions of cars, stoves, boilers, etc
6 comments

> You can’t just snap your fingers and replace millions of cars, [...]

The Chinese are trying to help, but Americans like tariffs more than they hate climate change. (At least that's the preference that their political system expresses.)

Probably the US should mandate (by edict or incentive) its own industry to build EVs rather than importing a strategic asset from a strategic competitor.
Almost anything can be painted as a strategic assets..
Yes, but in car-centric US it's not too far-fetched to paint cars as a strategic asset. But maybe my thinking is too simplistic?
What is strategic about a fleet of passenger vehicles? If anything our car dependent cities are more of a liability than an asset.
If there is a trade war and you can neither import cars, nor produce them anymore, you are in a pickle.
They did. But the local political dysfunction meant they ended up making Elon Musk the richest man in the world and he's now trying to take over the government in cahoots with someone who is fighting a culture war against EVs, while only getting to 10% EV sales.

China spent similar amounts and has a vibrant, world leading EV marketplace, supplied by their vibrant, world leading battery industry, and 50% EV penetration domestically and export plans that terrify the countries that chose not to follow this path.

Help is an interesting word choice for what is essentially undercutting our entire domestic automotive manufacturers and ensuring, on a pure cost front, that the majority of Americans purchase and rely on maintenance for a product produced in China. Doing so would have major negative consequences for our own strategic interests, hence why there has been such a massive tariff on it for several years now. China isn't being altruistic when they're attempting to sell us their much more affordable EVs. It's not a uniquely US perspective on the threat of Chinese EVs either, as the EU also has lesser but still non-trivial tariffs on Chinese EV brands.
If the US and the EU had invested in EVs 15 years ago like China did instead of scrambling to do so in the last 5, then China would not have the advantage it has now on the other carmakers.

Also if the governments want people to move away from ICE cars, then maybe they should stop putting tariffs on cars coming from China.

At some point, you need to make a decision and stick with it.

The way I see it as a consumer in the EU is that the EU is simultaneously saying we need to transition to a lower carbon economy as quickly as possible but then increases the price of goods that could be used in this transition. Make it make sense.

Is it my fault that the carmakers in the EU failed to invest EV tech?

So why am I being asked as a consumer to subsidize the legacy carmakers who were very happy to rake in billions of euros in the last 10 years while selling Diesel engines all the while knowing the the Chinese EVs were just around the corner?

Well, isn't it a good thing that they can help fight climate change without being altruistic? The entire western capitalist model is based on the premise that capitalism is good because people can help improve society through selfish means. Altruism doesn't scale. It's best when incentives are aligned.

The problem isn't with keeping Chinese cars out through tariffs. It's keeping them out, and at the same time not stimulating domestic green energy development enough. Why should the energy transition be bottlenecked by incumbent interests' profit margins?

> Well, isn't it a good thing that they can help fight climate change without being altruistic? The entire western capitalist model is based on the premise that capitalism is good because people can help improve society through selfish means. Altruism doesn't scale. It's best when incentives are aligned.

Yes, that's why you should let people buy cheap Chinese goods.

> The problem isn't with keeping Chinese cars out through tariffs. It's keeping them out, and at the same time not stimulating domestic green energy development enough.

Didn't you just say capitalism was good, and now you argue the opposite?

> Didn't you just say capitalism was good

No. I was criticizing the notion that not being "altruistic" is always bad. That is not the same as saying selfishness/capitalism is always good.

Well, the Chinese tax payers altruistically subsidise western consumers.
You say it like 'undercutting' is a bad thing.

If consumers have to pay less, that's a Good Thing.

Not when the domestic companies which manufacture the same product wither as a result. Don't get me wrong, I don't believe in defensive national economic policy as a blanket protection we should do to protect all industries, but in special circumstances such as this one where losing all of our electric vehicle production capability and specialization is at play, I think it certainly is in our strategic interest to avoid that from happening.
> Not when the domestic companies which manufacture the same product wither as a result.

That's not how economics works.

A company being unable to compete with another one on price will result in a drop in revenue, as consumers purchase the product with the cheaper price. Revenue going down is bad for a business. How exactly is any of what I've just stated wrong? How exactly is another company selling a similar product at a much lower price point good for the company? Perplexing position that somehow introducing a much cheaper product into the market from company B is good for company A.
Ever been to China? An environmental disaster.
The tariffs don't help with that.
Who said snap your fingers? we are talking about investment. The US already has enough oil to last until all cars are replaced if that's your worry. The real problem is allowing oil companies to grow even further, putting the public's health and climate at even more risk. The logical (even liberal if you think on $$ terms) choice is to invest in renewable.
Nuclear plants take at least 10 years to be build. During that time millions of cars, stoves and boilers can be replaced. Look at Europe, their natural gas usage peaked in 2010.
> Nuclear plants take at least 10 years to be build.

False.

Some are built in under 5 years and many are currently being built on those timelines: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-08-20/china-app...

Well, your 28th reactor will probably be built faster than your first in many years.

And how long did it take to get the permits? How long will that take in the US?

I highly doubt any new reactor (that's not already in the planning phase) will come online in the US within the next 10 years.

> "I highly doubt any new reactor (that's not already in the planning phase) will come online in the US within the next 10 years."

That's a reasonable prediction. The US has essentially regulated new nuclear power plants out of existence over the past generation. That doesn't mean that there's anything about the technology that means it takes a decade to build, though. It's just a policy failure.

It would be a lot easier to replace the cars with electric ones if not for those tariffs on the biggest manufacturers of electric cars.
Gas boilers and stoves aren't common anywhere else in the modern world.
You can stop selling new ones and invest in alternatives...