| >Those GPUs also cost a bomb to run. LLMops isn't super easy, I am working with a large OEM manufacturer rn as a consultant and they are also experimenting internally with LLMs, but they have enough resources to run those models. I don't see smaller companies having enough resources to experiment with various models at scale like they are. True, I sorta conflated running llama on your pc with what large comapnies. Not to mention how I was somewhat conflating chat-gpt the product with OpenAI the company, What i argues was that soon enough ChatGPT itself won't be that special when comparing it to open source models. OpenAI the company is in the weird position of both having a moat, and yet drowning in it: They have a huge advantage in skilled experts, engineers, and know-how to get a first mover advantage, especially now that they are practically another subsidiary of microsoft. But they also have the notable disadvantage of spending billions upon billions of dollars developing a model that in the end is little to no better than what one could get for free from the internet. A small company with a few dozen specialist could present a comparable product at a fraction of the cost, simply by not having to pay back the cost of developing their own model. I feel like OpenAI would end up in a weird place in soon, maybe something like a cloud provider for companies, usefull for smaller ones where brand recognition and reliability matter, but having to compete with more specialised companies offering a similar service using llama, And at some point large companies could just build their own servers with open-source LLM's with their own servers and their own teams, bypassing OpenAI entirely. The biggest winner here is those new small AI consulting teams that didn't have to spend nearly as much on finetuning the models that are already made. You probably know way more about these things than me, what do you think of this prediction? It doesnt sound as terrible for developers as I first thought, though it pains me to see how many people quit/never went into software development due to the AI hype, we lost a third of our class from 2023, and I assune things are even worse in america/developed countries. |
Despite these challenges, I believe OpenAI has strategic avenues to sustain and grow. Their investments in integrations, enterprise solutions, and reinforcing the reliability and scalability of their models can maintain their edge. The trust and infrastructure they offer might still be appealing enough for many businesses to stick with them, similar to the AWS analogy you mentioned.
As for the job market and the future for developers, I see your point. The AI hype has indeed introduced some volatility. However, I am cautiously optimistic. The evolution of AI and its integration into various fields will eventually balance out, creating new opportunities even as it displaces others. I still believe we’re in a transformative period where mobility and adaptation within the CS field could lead to exciting new prospects.
To your last point, it’s indeed tough to see talented individuals shy away from software development due to the current uncertainties. However, I hope this phase will pass and those who remain will likely find themselves at the forefront of some groundbreaking developments. Let's hope our lord and saviour, J-Pow has many more rate cuts for us in the future.