[AnthonyMouse]

Musk overpaid for Twitter. That doesn't mean it's dying any faster than incumbent social media platforms do in general.

Someday Twitter will be AOL, but so will TikTok and Facebook and all the rest of them, because nothing lasts forever.

People who think it's going to die immediately are just hoping that it will, but that's generally not how it works. They die when something else replaces them, and even once the thing arrives the replacement takes quite a long time.

[threeseed]

Fidelity has downgraded X by 80% in 2.5 years.

And X has competitors in Bluesky and Threads both of which have seen record user numbers and growth. For example, Threads has grown to 275m MAU in 1.5 years.

There is no reality in which X should be remotely compared to any of the other major social media platforms. It is failing at an unprecedented rate and based on user growth in Bluesky/Threads is continuing to rapidly decline.

[AnthonyMouse]

> Fidelity has downgraded X by 80% in 2.5 years.

Hence overpaid.

They've also lost advertisers, which is obviously bad for Fidelity but not all that relevant to the people using it. And it's not clear to what extent that has any staying power because companies get a one-time story written about them when they do the initial announcement and soon they're back to wanting to run ads everywhere they can because running ads that reach a different user base gets them otherwise-unavailable sales.

> And X has competitors in Bluesky and Threads both of which have seen record user numbers and growth. For example, Threads has grown to 275m MAU in 1.5 years.

Threads is Facebook. It has users because Facebook is pushing it with both financial resources and the network effect of an incumbent social network, and even then it has fewer users than Facebook itself and its users are disproportionately converts from Facebook/Instagram rather than Twitter because that's where it's being pushed.

Bluesky has like 7M users. It's the sort of thing that could replace Twitter, in ten or twenty years.

> There is no reality in which X should be remotely compared to any of the other major social media platforms.

It has hundreds of millions of active users.

> It is failing at an unprecedented rate and based on user growth in Bluesky/Threads is continuing to rapidly decline.

Musk changed some things and a small percentage of people left, many of them performatively because they later came back. Network effects are strong.