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by Dalewyn 590 days ago
I'll bite, I guess:

* In deferrence to Boglehead philosophy, hedging bets is a fool's errand because the idea is you lose your money the more you touch it. Make a plan, invest, and then hold hold hold staying the course come hell or high water.

* If you truly want to reduce or eliminate risk, the best way is to simply cash out. A $1 bill will always be a $1 bill with absolute certainty.

3 comments

As a boglehead... that's just not how it works in the real world. Some people would treat the loss of $X worse than the gain of $X is good. Thus, they don't have linear value for money (no one really does... if you lose 90% of your bank account, you still have dinner tonight; if you lose all of it, you might not).

Some people want to come out neutral or lose a guaranteed small amount, rather than the chance to lose or gain the same amount. I'd pay $5 to avoid having to flip a $10k +/- coin. Thus, if I knew I would lose $10k if X got elected, I could place a $10k bet for Y to win.

> Some people would treat the loss of $X worse than the gain of $X is good

Most people. "Loss aversion refers to a cognitive bias in which the same situation is perceived as worse if it is framed as a loss, rather than a gain" [1].

> I'd pay $5 to avoid having to flip a $10k +/- coin

Risk aversion. Seemingly related, but in fact quite rational.

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Loss_aversion

There are bad hedges and good hedges.

It is commonplace to take various financial positions that limit downside. It is one of the primary uses of options and futures.

>I'll bite, I guess:

> In deferrence to Boglehead philosophy, hedging bets is a fool's errand

The flagged comment didn't say that hedging was idiotic, but implied that the specific hedge mentioned was idiotic, yet didn't give any reason for calling it such.

>$1 bill will always be a $1 bill with absolute certainty

This is money illusion.