[JumpCrisscross]

The tariffs let Trump push tax cuts. People want the tax cuts. The tariffs are just a way to say they’ll be paid for. (Dems do that same with deficit financing and ‘tax the rich’ schemes.)

There are also communities who don’t think tariffs will be reciprocated. If we truly engage in a trade war, American farming and car manufacturing will be in crisis—they’re overbuilt for a domestic-only market.

[bryanlarsen]

In 2017 Harley-Davidson was devastated by a European counter-tariff. I'm confident that in 2025 Twitter and Tesla amongst other signature American brands will be hit by some massive counter-tariffs.

[unsnap_biceps]

I can see the argument that Tesla will be impacted by counter-tariffs, but what possible counter-tariff do you think could impact twitter?

[JumpCrisscross]

> what possible counter-tariff do you think could impact twitter?

See Bytedance.

[orwin]

Tarifs on services and advertising do not exist yet, but that would be a fun opportunity to try it.

Honestly I think we should just ignore and let it pass.

[toomuchtodo]

Did Brazil not blackhole Twitter until Musk paid up? Which he did? And Brazil went after Starlink?

What do you think China could do, comparatively speaking? If we look at what they did to Jack Ma [1], I could see China doing far more harm to Musk's China interests than the US can do to China.

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jack_Ma#During_tech_crackdown

[JumpCrisscross]

> that in 2025 Twitter and Tesla amongst other signature American brands will be hit by some massive counter-tariffs

Maybe. Agricultural products is easy because there isn’t a billionaire at the top to be spiteful. Detroit auto a middle ground between pissing off Elon and not retaliating.

[bryanlarsen]

Tariff targets are generally chosen on industries that have an oversized impact on politicians. Harley-Davidson was chosen because while those tariffs would have little impact on the European or US economy, they figured it would have an oversized impact on Trump.

Farmers are typically chosen for counter-tariffs for the same reason -- politicians listen to farmers a lot more closely than their voting or economic impact would imply. Upset farmers get a lot of media time.

Musk has Trump's ear. That's why he'll be targetted.

[JumpCrisscross]

> Tariff targets are generally chosen on industries that have an oversized impact on politicians

In 2016, when countries were trying to influence policy. There are other motivations for tariffs, from seeking autonomy from an unreliable trading partner to straight-up spite. There is also the domestic component: you target industries you have domestic competitors for because that now makes them happy.

[bryanlarsen]

All counter tariffs are trying to influence policy. If they weren't, we'd just call them tariffs.