Hacker News new | ask | show | jobs
by thegrim33 591 days ago
Given there's over a million registered vehicles in SF, and only ~300 fully autonomous vehicles in SF, if there's only 310 pedestrian deaths over the past 10 years, with all else being equal, you'd definitely expect the vast majority of those deaths to be from normal vehicles, given that there's you know, over a million of them, and only ~300 AVs.

As AVs are .0299% of the vehicles on the road, all else being equal, they'd account for .00929 deaths per year. You can't really point at the lack of deaths at this point as proof of anything.

3 comments

According to the DMV of CA in 2023 there were 453,180 including motorcycles and trailers. Most vehicles are used very little or not at all where as autonomous vehicles are used most of the time. Also, the NHTSA numbers are for all AVs everywhere in the US so your astonishingly numbers precise are way off.

Still, as a pedestrian, I am pretty happy the AVs are not parking in the crosswalks all the time.

You need to look at per mile driven rather than just number of vehicles because the AVs are much higher utilization. The states confirm that per mile driven, AVs are much safer.

Also anyone that has walked near one can easily tell. The AVs actually yield to pedestrians, especially if you step near the crosswalk unlike many SF drivers.

I doubt everything is equal. AVs are likely driving many more miles on the road each day than the majority of other vehicles.