[IAmGraydon]

You’re not thinking about the other side of the equation. If they win (becoming the first to excel at the benchmark), they potentially make billions. If they lose, they’ll be relegated to the dustbin of LLM history. Since there is an existential threat to the brand, there is almost nothing that isn’t worth risking to win. Risking a scandal to avoid irrelevance is an easy asymmetrical bet. Of course they would take the risk.

[rl3]

Okay, let's assume what you say ends up being true. They effectively cheat, then raise some large fundraising round predicated on those results.

Two months later there's a bombshell exposé detailing insider reports of how they cheated the test by cooking their training data using an army of PhDs to hand-solve. Shame.

At a minimum investor confidence goes down the drain, if it doesn't trigger lawsuits from their investors. Then you're looking at maybe another CEO ouster fiasco with a crisis of faith across their workforce. That workforce might be loyal now, but that's because their RSUs are worth something and not tainted by fraud allegations.

If you're right, I suppose it really depends on how well they could hide it via layers of indirection and compartmentalization, and how hard they could spin it. I don't really have high hopes for that given the number of folks there talking to the press lately.