[rightbyte]

> Flipside: prediction markets absolutely missed Harris's pick of Walz.

A pick of VP is not easy to model as some sort of stochastic variable from sample data.

[dredmorbius]

Of course, if we want to assess which methodology is more accurate, we'll need more than two cherry-picked examples.

<https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=42074220>

[rightbyte]

Ahhh, sorry, somehow I thought you meant the two Vice President candidates as the 'cherries being picked'.

Not the two betting examples.

[dredmorbius]

No, I'm referring to the blinkered focus on two specific instances of prediction.

Again: a systemic review is required, and I've linked some of the extant literature.