[nickpp]

> Donbas and Crimea is the price of avoiding Nuclear war

On the contrary, the risk of nuclear war increases when Putin gets Donbas and Crimea. Because what he wants next will be even more valuable to nations with nukes.

Appeasing sounds great but at some point you run out of other people's countries.

[hajile]

I don't understand this perspective.

Russia is gettin North Korean troops to fight for them because they are losing so bad, but Russia is also an aggressive superpower hell-bent on invading even more countries with far better defenses than Ukraine.

This isn't accounting for Russia's disastrous demographics problem. The biggest reason they are moving so slowly is because they can build new artillery, but are demographically forced to do everything they can to minimize casualties.

It also isn't accounting for Russia trying to get a permanent peace deal 2 months into the conflict. That's not the behavior of a country bent on conquest.

Finally, I can't take people seriously when they are basically asserting that Russia believed they could take over all of Eastern Europe with just ~200,000 troops. When Ukraine changed from regime toppling to an actual war, Russia was caught with their pants down. They had to hire Wagner and draft prisoners to buy time to start pushing soldiers through training. If they'd been planning some large invasion campaign, they would have started serious troop training a handful of years prior and have millions of already-trained troops.

[aguaviva]

It also isn't accounting for Russia trying to get a permanent peace deal 2 months into the conflict. That's not the behavior of a country bent on conquest.

When invading powers think they've prevailed and have their prey over their knee, and attempt to seal their conquest with a treaty -- they always call it a "peace deal".

You knew that, right?

[cynicalpeace]

> I don't understand this perspective.

It's because it's not based on fact. These people (rightly so) hate Putin. But just because you hate Putin does not mean he is capable or intending to be Hitler.

Same actually goes for Trump actually. Just because you don't like the guy doesn't mean he's literally Hitler.

[nickpp]

As someone who lives in a country neighboring Ukraine, hosted Ukrainian refugees and heard the stories about what is happening in occupied territories directly from escaped friends and relatives, (some of the older ones still remembering stories about nazi occupants), let me tell you one thing: you are massively underestimating Putin. And that is a fact.

[valval]

What kind of stories do you think the refugees from Donbas are telling in Russia? Did you know that those stories are why this war is ongoing?

I’m asking rhetorical questions because I know you have a biased view on the topic. You’ve long forgotten the humanity of the other side because of the propaganda.

[nickpp]

Please do feel free to point us to those stories from “refugees from Donbas”. Also, the Russian cities leveled, Russian families obliterated and Russian children kidnapped - by the Ukrainians. They must be some amazing stories to keep the war going since Donbas is currently pretty much all Russian - controlled.

I see Russian propaganda efforts are still going strong but so easily disproven in this day and age.

[aguaviva]

I’m asking rhetorical questions

You may want to try understanding what has factually been happened in the conflict. You know, for its own sake.

Instead of just asking rhetorical questions, and imagining the stories that you think people must be telling about it.

[cynicalpeace]

The Neville Chamberlain comparison has been used to involve us in every major war since WWII and literally all of them turned out to be total disasters.

It's like Charlie Brown and the football.

[geoka9]

One could argue there have been no major war since WWII and the belief in the futility of appeasement is exactly the reason.

[kgeist]

Putin himself is already tired of the war. He just doesn't see a way out where he can save the face. He wanted it to be a 3 day campaign, remember? I have doubts Putin is eager to start Ukraine War 2.0

[geoka9]

Russia wants a few years of respite, ideally without sanctions and with the Ukraine military stripped to the studs, so that its own military can regroup and finish the job in a few years. Once that happens, the rest of Eastern Europe will be next and the Ukrainians will be first in the meat wave attacks, just like their compatriots from Eastern Donbass in 2022 (it has been occupied by Russia since 2014 and by now the towns there are nearly void of male population).

[cynicalpeace]

> the rest of Eastern Europe will be next

Do you have any evidence of these plans?

[jiggawatts]

They literally showed them during the first days of the war.

There was a press conference where they accidentally showed a diagram with arrows continuing through Ukraine into Transnistria, which is Moldova's equivalent of the Donbass.

You have to be very ignorant of geopolitics to think that there aren't more countries like Ukraine that Russia would like to return to their empire.

Some might join voluntarily but many -- like Kazakhstan -- won't without a fight. Unlike Ukraine, most of the others are not conveniently next to Europe and hence will be impractical for western nations to support.

After Ukraine falls, Moldova is next, and then the various -stans will be rolled up in quick succession. This will create a Soviet Union 2.0, which will be a net positive for Russia, and a mixed bag for the rest of the world. It'll likely be a net negative for Europe, which is why they're supporting Ukraine now.

[cynicalpeace]

So no?

"the rest of Eastern Europe" was the claim

[jiggawatts]

Serbia, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Moldova, and possibly even Hungary are all in eastern Europe and at non-zero risk of a repeat invasion by Russia.

Sure, not all of Eastern Europe is at risk.

So... is that okay then in your mind? As long as Putin only takes some of Europe, that's acceptable?

[geoka9]

As in copies of official documents with dates and Putin's signature? Of course not.

But if you pay any attention to what's going on in Russia, there's not much doubt. Their TV talks about it and their politicians talk about it non-stop. While civilian economy is winding down and the only jobs that pay decently are in the MIC and the military; kids in grammar schools are being taught how to disassemble assault rifles (and that's in a country with historically paranoid gun controls) and how to hate the enemy (which, for Russia, is every foreign country). Their historic military anniversaries used to be just commemorations, but now they are all-consuming cultural events that last throughout the year, non-stop, as symbols of the military might and glory. They are trying to create a death cult, and have been doing it for the past 10 years, at least.

[nickpp]

Russian conquest wars in the last 30 years: Chechnya 1994–1996 and 1999–2009, Georgia 2008 (Abkhazia and South Ossetia) & Ukraine (2014 - today).

If Putin ever gets tired of war, he seems to quicky recover and start again.