[selfmodruntime]

"America first" includes economic policies that drive up commerce, even at the cost of our allies. German news is full of VW and other auto executives wanting to leave for production in the US. Trump's tariffs mean companies will just want to produce in the US and export outside it. And it's working.

Do people not understand this?

[andy_ppp]

The idea that you’re going to be producing iPhones or other mobile phones in the US (for example) is extremely unlikely in the next decade. It will be interesting to see the chaos he causes if he goes through with this and the plan to deport 20 million people.

[seanp2k2]

I’m sure there will be masses of folks moving to rural areas to pick up those sweet, sweet agricultural jobs that pay $5/hr under the table, or do repetitive precision PCB assembly all day for $1.25/hr and 80hr 6-day work weeks.

[selfmodruntime]

I'm not talking iPhones, I'm talking "luxury" commodities like cars and other expensive equipment where quality counts.

[wil421]

Who said anything about iPhones? Last time a president spoke about it was Obama and he said those jobs are never coming back.

[andy_ppp]

I thought Trump said putting tariffs on everything imported from China would lead to jobs coming back to the US? So Trump said it not me. It’s just an example of where this policy is unworkable is my point.

[Maken]

While I'm also skeptical, production could be moved from the US and other Western countries into Asia thanks to the "correct" economical incentives. There is no reason it can be moved again. But we all know it will be moved to Africa and Southeast Asia, but still.

[astrange]

Tariffs will make this much worse for two reasons:

1. importing your inputs becomes more expensive.

2. other countries will impose retaliatory tariffs on your exports.

This is not how to do economic development; Asian countries instead used export promotion. (…And wage suppression and currency weakening.)

[tomrod]

Tariffs are an unnecessary price increase. To use your example, there will be some modest net growth of manufacturing at the expense of higher prices for everyone, typically dominating any net growth in jobs.

[selfmodruntime]

There are no tariff price increases for cars/ other goods produced in the US. Companies will build a manufacturing plant in the US to access the market. They will in turn benefit from low regulation and less strict worker rights.

[tomrod]

Correct. Tariffs increase the prices needed to purchase cars generally, not just those produced in the US. Perhaps that is what you're missing in your analysis. If the market rate for a car is P, which is below what America can produce the cars for, P_America, then the only way for domestic production to be competitive at an equivalent quality is for a tariff to balance P_America <= P+Tariff. So while folks prefer to purchase at price P, which a free and non-tariffed market would prefer and would give consumers a better price overall, we instead rely on a distortionary tariff and pay P_America, ultimately hurting consumers. In this Econ 201, this results in dead weight loss. Hacker News would benefit from image inserts here, so indirect you to wiki instead to understand the topic better. This is an inefficiency, meaning that tariffs in imported autos are driving a jobs program without real economic benefit to all (but a minor benefit to folks that are working in an industry doomed to fail after the tariff is removed by a more savvy political party who understands you can't infant-industry your way out of offshored industry).

[selfmodruntime]

It's not my analysis. I'm quoting car manufacturing CEO's, as per German national TV.

[tomrod]

Ah. Yes. They are kissing the ring and making plans on how to survive.

[selfmodruntime]

They are actively leaving and my home state's economy is in real danger of collapsing. I think I'm correct in being afraid.

[tomrod]

https://wits.worldbank.org/wits/wits/witshelp/Content/SMART/...

[redeux]

We lack the critical infrastructure and skills to produce a lot of these things, so it won’t just magically restore jobs but it will increase taxes for the foreseeable future.