[39896880]

> But it does give them a _lot_ of leeway for easy growth. They just need to make the country more business-friendly at the lower end.

Consumption-led growth is all but over. The population is shrinking, manufacturing is fleeing as fast it can, and the number old people exceeds young — China got old before it got rich, which has never happened before

[cyberax]

The old population will also need to consume stuff and services. And the younger people can make it.

China's fundamentals are fine. They just need to allow more low-level business activity. It's easier to start a factory compared to a neighborhood café.

[39896880]

Peak consumption for a population is 45-54, when income is highest and people are having their 1 kid. Once retirement hits income is generally fixed as people rely on pension or savings. They also depend more on state services like healthcare. In China, this also means depending on their 1 child.

It’s not really possible to say “China’s fundamentals are fine” because China’s fundamentals look like nothing the world has ever seen. It’s not clear they have the leadership to navigate it.

[cyberax]

Sure, but China has huge unemployment _and_ under-consumption. This means that the economy is not well-aligned with the needs of the population.

The fix for that is long-known: liberalize the business environment and let the market settle.

The question about the leadership is right, though. I'm not sure they _want_ the market to win.

[39896880]

The time to start a business is in your 20s, before you have a kid. Unfortunately, China runs short of these. The largest demographic bucket is 50-54 years old. The second largest is 65-69. The 20’s are 7th and 8th…

https://www.statista.com/statistics/1101677/population-distr...