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by dr-smooth
601 days ago
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> Just like I don't think anybody truly believes that flipping a real coin with non-identical sides (such as every currency coin I've ever used) must have EXACTLY 50% probability of landing on either side. That's a nice thought, but that's giving the average person too much credit when it comes to probability. In my experience, most people's understanding of probability is very poor. For example, few people truly understand the concept of independent events. Most people believe that after flipping 10 heads in a row, the probability of tails on the next flip is much higher. I'm sure you could convince a rational individual that the assymetry of the coin makes 50/50 impossible. But I doubt that the average person has ever really considered it. |
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