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by adastra22
592 days ago
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Beyond the (absolutely correct) sibling comment about von Neumann's dated expertise, you are experiencing selectivity bias. Technologists who believe in the Singularity (and it really is belief, not a rigorous technical argument), are very vocal about it. Those that don't have faith, don't bother speaking about it. There are a lot of people out there who believe in technological progressivism and continued advancement of socially beneficial technologies. They just don't speak about a "singularity" beyond which predictive power is not possible, because the idea isn't worth spending time on as it isn't even self-consistent. It's not our job to show why the Singularity won't happen. It's the nutjobs who believe in the Singularity who have the responsibility of showing why. In the 70 years in which people have been bitten by this idea, nobody has. I'll wait. |
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No, but shallow dismissal of a subject that many intelligent technologists have spent their life considering just comes off as arrogant.
Predicting technological timelines is a largely pointless exercise, but I wouldn't be hard pressed to imagine a future N decades or centuries from now in which, assuming we do not destroy ourselves, human affairs become overshadowed by machine intelligence or technological complexity, and an increasingly complex technosocial system becomes increasingly difficult to predict until some limit of understanding is crossed.