[trod123]

You are comparing apples to oranges.

Unemployment calculations from data recorded during that time have since changed. The same unemployment numbers are not the same mathematical objects being compared.

At this point, we can never know the true scope of unemployment to make any comparison definitively, because the measurements no longer accurately collect the necessary information for such a comparison.

You don't see engineers turn sampling data into an average rate of change, and then use it for safety-critical applications that require instantaneous rates of change.

In my previous response, I said unemployment today isn't counted after 18 weeks, so you should be aware that these objects are not the same.

Just because you have no visibility on a problem doesn't mean there isn't a problem especially when objective measures indicate there is a problem.

No definitive comparison can be made objectively, claiming its not even close would involve delusion when no external objective comparison can be made, definitionally.

[JumpCrisscross]

> Unemployment calculations from data recorded during that time have since changed. The same unemployment numbers are not the same mathematical objects being compared

We can look at the number of people on payrolls and the number of people claiming unemployment.

You are in a deep tech bubble if you think we're in a recession let alone depression. (What we are in is a cost of living crisis.)

[trod123]

Recessions typically are pullbacks of the market sector for 1-2 years, but not necessarily slowdowns in growth, though there is no globally accepted definition for a recession.

Depressions typically have stagnant growth, starting in one sector, and expanding; with no prospects and a duration that can last years (plural). You can have a depression where everyone says they are hiring, but no hiring actually occurs.

Cost of living crises naturally occur during the latter crises given the chaotic nature of deflationary and inflationary forces (money-printing). They are not mutually exclusive.

Payroll data collection has problems with accuracy, people claiming unemployment also have data collection problems. Its not uncommon for the government to withhold unemployment benefit approval until some arbitrary bureacratic requirement is met with no means to contact someone to resolve it timely. I know several people who received their 18 month unemployment effectively as a lump sum and they spent days of labor trying to overcome those hurdles.

This causes a delay of action, and bursts in time (temporally) which cannot be compared except as an average. Revisions are subject to problems too.

[JumpCrisscross]

> Recessions typically are pullbacks of the market sector for 1-2 years, but not necessarily slowdowns in growth, though there is no globally accepted definition for a recession

There absolutely is. A slowdown in growth is not a recession.

[teractiveodular]

I'm not saying there isn't a problem. I am saying that you can't extrapolate from 70% of IT people in your circles being unemployed to the entire economy imploding Great Depression style.

Even in IT circles, it's still better out there than it was during the GFC (2009, 10% US unemployment), and way better than it was after the dot-com bust (2000, <6% overall unemployment, but much, much higher in IT).