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by ZeroGravitas
595 days ago
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The global "slowdown" means selling roughly 3 million (20%) more than last year, with the share of all car sales up from 18% to over 20% of total and all predictions expecting that to continue. Why do words no longer mean anything when people want to deny a reality they find uncomfortable? |
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When any company makes significant CapEx investment like retooling ICE factories for EV manufacturing, the AOPs are generated based on certain assumptions of industry rate of growth.
The recentish rush of ICE manufacturers into EVs thanks to global subsidizes (something I support because battery supply chains have dual use implications) was predicated on the assumption that the rate of EV adoption and new car sales would be consistent with 2019-23, but these projections didn't take into account that overall automotive consumer demand would shrink rapidly (ICE and EV) or the fact that ESG financing would lose relevance due to external shocks from the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine.
What this means is a number of very new players in the EV space got burned really bad because their AOPs have fallen apart.
Companies like Tesla and BYD weren't as badly affected because they had been investing in EV manufacturing for over a decade, unlike more recent entries who only began these investments in the 2019-23 period.
Adoption is happening, but it's not going to be as fast as EV fanatics say, but it's not going to be as slow as ICE fanatics say either.
That said, for most manufacturers who entered the EV space without a cohesive strategy, they are in a world of pain now because they have financial obligations to make whole.
> Why do words no longer mean anything when people want to deny a reality they find uncomfortable
Frack off.
I'm not making a moral judgement on EVs or biasing in favor of ICE vehicles.