[RaftPeople]

> There must be a name for the human bias that sees what is possible this month and doesn't believe things might be very different very soon and change quickly

The counter to that is that AI prediction of 10 to 20 years away has been happening since the 1950's (or before?).

It seems there is some foundational progress but it's very slow.

[nsbshssh]

Unlike cold fusion there is real practical progress. No grid energy comes frok cold fusion. Millions of people are using AI to help get their work done.

[RaftPeople]

> Unlike cold fusion there is real practical progress.

Yes agreed, there is progress, that's why I said "It seems there is some foundational progress but it's very slow."

Training deep networks, vectorization of semantically related words+phrases, reservoir computing for time series patterns, etc. etc.

All great foundational work, but we still can't reproduce how a rabbit dynamically adjusts it's olfactory network the minute it learns whether a new smell results in something positive/negative/neutral, which is probably the same trick used in a variety of places in our brain to give it such dynamic adaptability.

It's progress, but it's moving slowly.