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It'll take some time for cheaper, at least a few years until competitors arrive in force. SpaceX's investors need to see the return on those billions invested.

...but in general, it's amazing that something impossible 4 years ago is common today, both fast satellite internet and AI - feels like a whole another age.

bangaladore 607 days ago

> at least a few years until competitors arrive in force

Nobody, and I mean nobody, will be able to compete the SpaceX on cost to orbit. Every other space company is screwed from purely a pricing perspective. Of course there are national security concerns in other countries, and R&D will continue, but commercially nobody will compete on the launch price.

If you mean just simply a Starlink competitor, that seems possible, but SpaceX can certainly launch satellites cheaper than what they will charge companies to do so. At what point does this become an anti-trust issue?

SketchySeaBeast 607 days ago

But that's just step 1 of enshittification, right? Get all the frogs possible in the pot before you turn up the heat?

It may very well be that the US government nationalizes both Starlink and SpaceX for security reasons.

There have been quite the instances with high-profile Musk technology ending up in Russian hands (in latest news, a Cybertruck for Chechen wannabe-dictator/strongman Kadyrow), and Musk's personal ... deep dive into madness, as well as his questionably legal voter bribery, just add fuel to the fire of both companies appearing not really trustworthy under Musk's control.

Nah they're buying their own constellation (see Starshield) and installing eavesdropping equipment in the commercial downlink centers. What more could they want?

[1] https://www.keeptrack.space/deep-dive/who-owns-spacex/

> What more could they want?

The knowledge that even if Elon Musk goes completely off-script, Starshield/Starlink/SpaceX will still be there. Right now, there is nothing stopping Musk - whose shares control 78% of the voting rights [1] - to wind down shop at his will. Maybe he'll have to pay out the other investors, but like at Twitter he may just end up sticking the finger to anyone whom the company is in debt to.

Having the future of space flight, low-latency civilian and military communication and low-orbit recon satellites all held together in the hand of one increasingly erratic billionaire is not something the US can afford to accept.

inemesitaffia 606 days ago

They have their SATCOM solutions and at least 3 new ones under construction

You seem to think the DoD and the NSA don't have anything to say in the matter. Frankly I'd be quicker to believe men in black suits and sad faces take over the operation before Musk manages to wind it down. It's worth as a military asset is simply too great to risk a madman have complete control, regardless of how many shares he's got.

> You seem to think the DoD and the NSA don't have anything to say in the matter.

It's not like Musk has shown much respect for the law (or, let's be real, anyone other than himself) over the years, and it's only declined exponentially. Musk's history is littered with instances of breaking the law without consequences (most especially, when it comes to the SEC), why should he shy away from taking revenge should Trump lose in November? He's already stated "I'm fucked" when Harris wins, so he might as well decide to go out with one final bang.

TMWNN 607 days ago

>It may very well be that the US government nationalizes both Starlink and SpaceX for security reasons.

Don't confuse the SouthAfrikanManBad Reddit-driven fanfic in your head with reality.

>(in latest news, a Cybertruck for Chechen wannabe-dictator/strongman Kadyrow)

Really? Your example is said Chechen strongman buying an automobile, readily available on the open market, containing zero secret technology? Really?

I look forward to your prediction of the Japanese government nationalizing Toyota, because Hilux trucks are the vehicles of choice among terrorists and other warring parties around the world.

PS - If your reply contains any variant of "Musk turned off Starlink in Ukraine!", please delete your HN account immediately.

[1] https://edition.cnn.com/2024/03/18/tech/elon-musk-ketamine-u...

> Don't confuse the SouthAfrikanManBad Reddit-driven fanfic in your head with reality.

Musk himself has stated he's regularly using ketamine [1], and it's obvious just how hard he spiralled down in personality over the last years. I don't care much if it's ketamine, megalomania, too many children, not enough sleep, falling down conspiracy rabbit holes, barely medicated ADHD or whatever that's causing this, he's clearly not fit for the position. Dude should have went on a sabbatical after the fuck-up that forced him to buy Twitter, instead he went full steam ahead.

> Really? Your example is said Chechen strongman buying an automobile, readily available on the open market, containing zero secret technology? Really?

Considering that Russia has been on sanctions lists for over two years now, and Kadyrow since 2017 [2], there is a question how that car ended up in Kadyrow's hands despite the sanctions - and to what degree Tesla is involved or can be held liable otherwise.

> I look forward to your prediction of the Japanese government nationalizing Toyota, because Hilux trucks are the vehicles of choice among terrorists and other warring parties around the world.

There's a difference between readily available vehicles and ones that are still rare in supply.

[2] https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/sm1208

inemesitaffia 606 days ago

There's no difference. The key question is about knowing supply. There's no question about liability. Except to people who don't understand how sanctions work and how circumvention works. Or where Dubai is. Too many children isn't a disqualifying factor. You should know better.

i.e this is Reddit fanfic

inemesitaffia 606 days ago

The Chechen story is absolute nonsense. You'd know if you noticed Kim Jung Un drives a BMW

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