[randmeerkat]

> If you have a 25 m^2 cross section in the direction of the explosion, at that distance you have a roughly 1 in 246 billion chance of any given bit of debris hitting you.

Source?

[a1369209993]

  $ units
  You have: 25m2 / 2tau(700km)^2
  You want: /billion
    * 0.0040600751
    / 246.30086