[ethbr1]

Aka Kessler syndrome [0] or neutron flux / cross-section (and associated equations, if you want to model it that way) [1].

[0] https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kessler_syndrome [1] https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Neutron_flux

[throw4950sh06]

That's if the risk comes out at 100%, but there's some space below that.