[aftbit]

IMO, these layoffs are not caused by AI or because Google suddenly doesn't need engineers. Instead, we're seeing at least four effects collide:

1. Growth can't last forever. Big tech is moving from an exponential phase to a sigmoidal one. Expect to see less spending and more focus on efficiency. It takes fewer people to keep the profit engine going than it does to build something totally new from the beginning.

2. What goes up must come down. Paradoxically, even though half of the world shut down, COVID led to a giant market boom. Head counts went up dramatically from 2020 to 2022. Tons of cash was thrown at the market.

3. 0% Fed rate is over (for now). It costs money to borrow money, and investors can get actual non-zero returns in a "risk-free" investment. Now companies need to justify their spending, reduce debt, and show returns that are commensurate with their risk in the new environment. Raising interest rates cools the economy precisely by forcing layoffs and cutbacks.

4. "R&D" (which includes a substantial amount of software engineering work) now must be capitalized and amortized over five years (at least in the US). This is a much less tax-advantageous position than existed before 2021, and new guidance in late 2023 made it clear that this applied to much of our industry.

[maerF0x0]

> Big tech is moving from an exponential phase to a sigmoidal one.

I'd propose a modification of "Big Tech" to "Ad Tech" or "Marketing Tech".

There's still exponential growth available in nascent or underdeployed technologies -- AR/VR, blockchain/crypto applications (beyond just ICO), AI, IoT, Autonomous machines (maybe that's AI to you), are a few that come to mind. I'd wager the next "Google" will be in one of those, OpenAI may already be it.

[ufmace]

I feel like all of this is true, but represents the larger background forces. I think a big factor in why it's hitting relatively hard now is the Musk takeover of Twitter - he laid off a ton of engineers, and nothing much happened. I think that was a shock to much of Big Tech that most of their orgs are really feather-bedded with people who aren't actually doing much to support the core business.

[jauntywundrkind]

Right wing & foreign disinformation campaigns took over.

He was already trying to end transparency, kick off researchers. Hoarding the wealth of ExTwitter rather than allowing free observation & exploration, like the Twitter days (open society being replaced by cloaked secrecy).

But there's been a bunch of absolutely brutal changes in the recent Terms of Service update. Anyone accessing too many tweets is liable for a 1.5 cent per tweet damages fine according to the ToS. And all disputes are court/forum shopped to a Northern Texas district with particularly right wing & Musk friendly judges, who were trying to strike down ACA judicially.

Technically Twitter seems kind of ok (there have definitely been some uptake of bad outages & foot guns), so your point remains. But driving out and kicking out all the governance & moderation teams and banning research & study has taken much of the light out of the universe, has eliminated the pre-requisites to finding out about and speaking about our local newly emerged online part of the universe. For that destruction of free speech and understanding, I am quite mad.

I still don't think that much of the "orgs are really feather-bedded" idea, and if they are, it's usually the org that can't let its people chase interesting stuff & political logjams or too much top down control. There are plenty of conservative engineers too, but a huge number of engineers love building things, love to boldly venture.