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by rvnx 607 days ago
If the question is: “was FSD activated at the time of the accident: yes/no”, they can legally claim no, for example if luckily the FSD disconnects half a second before a dangerous situation (eg: glare obstructing cameras), which may coincide exactly with the times of some accidents.
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> To ensure our statistics are conservative, we count any crash in which Autopilot was deactivated within 5 seconds before impact, and we count all crashes in which the incident alert indicated an airbag or other active restraint deployed.

Scroll down to Methodology at https://www.tesla.com/VehicleSafetyReport

This is for Autopilot, which is the car following system on highways. If you are in cruise control and staying on your lane, not much is supposed to happen.

The FSD numbers are much more hidden.

The general accident rate is 1 per 400’000 miles driven.

FSD has one “critical disengagement” (aka before accident if human or safety braking doesn’t intervene) every 33 miles driven.

It means to reach unsupervised with human quality they would need to improve it 10’000 times in few months. Not saying it is impossible, just highly optimistic. In 10 years we will be there, but in 2 months, sounds a bit overpromising.