[trissi1996]

Even if you'd be right about the 90%, I highly doubt they'll be first.

How long did it take to get to that 90% ? AFAIK they first mentioned FSD ~2016(Self-driving itself even earlier).

As the last 20% of work are often 80% of the effort we can estimate that those remaining 10 % take ~ 40% of the time. They've been at it for ~8 years , which gives an expected release of ~ 2029.

We'll see what Waymo and other competition has until then.