Is the Federal Free Covid Test Program Guilty of Fraud Waste Abuse?

[smeg_it]

I love the program but I found it frustrating when my free covid test arrived last week and the expiry date on the box was for last January. Yes they were extended to this coming January, but that means they are only good for about ~90 days. When you call the number on the website the automated message says the the test are guaranteed for only 60 days. I asked this question elsewhere and there was some good base information I recieved that explained from the time of manufacture the initial expiration is only 4-6 months. Even if that's true, that means these test have been in storage 80%+ of their useful life, presumably where no one could use them. Now, at my house, most likely, all 4 will be thrown away without use, leaving me without test, again. One theory on the now removed post, was that they were left overs from government agencies. That seems doubtful to me as I believe the program has it's own funding and it's a nationwide program and I wouldn't think the "leftovers" would be enough of a supply.

Again, I love the idea of the program; I just don't understand why there is only a 60 day guarantee on something that seems to have a 1-2 year lifespan and why many of us seem to get them at them at end of life. Can someone enlighten me as to whats really going on?

[pwg]

> Can someone enlighten me as to whats really going on?

Most likely there were too many that were manufactured 4-5 months prior to the printed expiration date such that many remained unused and in storage back then, and this program is simply emptying the warehouse of the old, made 1.5 yrs ago, kits.

[smeg_it]

That's after the pandemic and this program has been around a while. My question, and some frustration, is with the fact that if many and/or most people get the test near end of life, then that's a huge waste because many will be thrown away unused after a month or two of being with the "end user" and then everyone like me will be without test. Maybe it could be streamlined. I don't know, it just seem like as it is, it's more wasteful than helpful but that's why I'm asking

[smeg_it]

Also, I could be wrong and most people get test with at least 6 months till they expire. The other post had a guy that received test closer to the minimum 60 days than I was.

[smeg_it]

I am hoping someone knows something. The post that got deleted yielded some useful information that seem to be copied and pasted from somewhere but it only helped concrete my current belief that this program is very wasteful. I was hoping to either understand why it can't be better, or if this or the other got enough views for maybe catch the attention of someone with pull e.g. a journalist, or a representative that might push for better management of the program

[talldayo]

> Can someone enlighten me as to whats really going on?

You never get the newest tests: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FIFO_(computing_and_electronic...

[smeg_it]

Lol, I understand Fifo (well the concept) I had an IT career for 20 years, although I was never an expert at much. In theory, if ordering were coordinated better, we wouldn't have test that spent 80%+ of their useful life dying in a warehouse. I love the idea of the program. I just hate that the funding isn't being used well and we are throwing away so much that could have been used. Maybe there is not help for it, but so far even the best answers I had on the other post couldn't explain the only 60 day viability guarantee

[pwg]

The agency running the program is not having tests made as you request one, nor are they having small batches made after some days worth of orders arrive.

Instead, they are guessing how many they might need for the "next 12 months" and placing a single large bulk order one time for that many tests.

If their guess proves to have overestimated how many are actually requested over the "next 12 months" then they end up with a supply of unused tests in their warehouse.

As requests arrive, they ship out the oldest tests first. If demand continues to arrive below their guesses as to usage, they end up with a backlog of tests that are nearing the end of their life.

[smeg_it]

That's news to me. Do you have a link that explains all this? I know about business quarters and yearly budgets but do they have to order once a year, and are you sure about that? I would rather wait a little longer for the test to arrive, and have the test at home and usable for much longer because 60 days isn't much out of 365. I honestly don't know how far apart it is between the times free test were available to order but from what I recall, I won't be able to order them in January when these expire

[pwg]

> Do you have a link that explains all this?

No, and I very much doubt any link exists. I am instead guessing based on experience with other govt. agency budgeting and procurement processes. The procurement process is very likely to have been a single bulk buy based on an estimation of upcoming demand. Then demand for the free tests likely did not meet the estimate, leaving a backlog in the warehouse of aging tests. I.e., they likely encountered a real life example of the "beer distribution game" (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Beer_distribution_game).

[smeg_it]

Do you know if they continuously over order or it's rare? Any links to this type of information would be appreciated.

[pwg]

> Do you know if they continuously over order or it's rare?

No idea, but such would not matter. So long as their estimate of future demand was much larger than the actual demand, they will build up a backlog of stored tests whether they bought all at once, or contracted for an even delivery over a given fiscal year. And until they 1) down estimate the future demand to order less on future contracts and 2) use up the backlog built up by the over estimate, the end result will be what you saw, a test that has aged in a warehouse somewhere for much of its claimed "lifetime".

> Any links to this type of information would be appreciated.

None likely exist. You might be able to glean some insights if you can determine 1) which sub-component of which agency handles the procurement of the tests and 2) can find the procurement contracts that were the purchase vehicles. Number 2 is, sadly, potentially likely to end up requiring FOIA requests to locate.

[smeg_it]

Old Geek check: FIFO was mentioned in Doctor Who https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Leisure_Hive

well unless he said LIFO, but if memory serves it was FIFO because he was first in and last out ;P

[smeg_it]

Off topic: I don't post here much and the instructions said just leave the url blank for a question. Was I supposed to have posted it with "Ask HN" or did I just post it incorrectly. I apologize if it was the later

[smeg_it]

Apparently, I have access to the previous post that was removed. I'll paste what seemed like good info and the confab with the person that posted it.

Other Person:

FDA:

Q: How is the expiration date determined for an at-home COVID-19 diagnostic test and can it be extended? A: All at-home OTC COVID-19 diagnostic tests are labeled with an expiration date printed on the outer box or package. Generally, tests should not be used beyond this expiration date. However, as discussed here, these expiration dates can be extended beyond the date printed on the outer box or package as additional stability data is collected.

COVID-19 test manufacturers perform studies to show how long after manufacturing COVID-19 tests perform as accurately as the day the test was manufactured. The shelf-life is how long the test should perform as expected and is measured from the date the test was manufactured. The expiration date is set at the end of the shelf-life and is the date through which the test is expected to perform as accurately as when manufactured.

The testing to determine this time period is called stability testing because it is confirming the time period over which the performance is expected to remain stable. There are different types of stability testing. The most accurate is real-time stability testing, where the manufacturer stores the tests for the time period of the proposed shelf-life (plus a little extra time to ensure the expiration date can be relied upon) and then evaluates its ability to perform accurately. For example, for a proposed 12-month shelf-life, the manufacturer would evaluate the performance after storing the test for 13 months.

In some cases, accelerated testing provides a faster way to estimate the stability of a test's performance over time by storing the test for a shorter time at a higher temperature, and then evaluating its ability to perform accurately. However, since accelerated testing only estimates the test stability, it does not provide as much assurance as real-time data, especially for longer time periods. Based on experience with tests and stability testing, accelerated testing typically provides sufficient assurance to label tests with a shelf-life of up to six months.

Since it takes time for test manufacturers to perform stability testing, the FDA typically authorizes at-home COVID-19 tests with a shelf-life of about four to six months from the day the test was manufactured, based on initial study results, and it may be extended later as additional data is collected.

Once the test manufacturer has more stability testing results, such as 12 or 18 months, the test manufacturer can contact the FDA to request that the FDA authorize a longer shelf-life. When a longer shelf-life is authorized, the expiration dates will be extended and the test manufacturer may send a notice to customers to provide the new authorized expiration dates, so the customers know how long they can use the tests they already have. If you did not purchase your at-home COVID-19 diagnostic test directly from the test manufacturer, you may not receive such a notice.

You can check the Expiration Date column of the List of Authorized At-Home OTC COVID-19 Diagnostic Tests to see if the expiration date for your at-home OTC COVID-19 test has been extended and how to find any new expiration date.

Q. Can I use an FDA-authorized at-home COVID-19 diagnostic test that is expired? A: The expiration date for an at-home COVID-19 diagnostic test may be extended beyond the date printed on the outer box or package as additional stability data is collected. You can check the Expiration Date column of the List of Authorized At-Home OTC COVID-19 Diagnostic Tests to see if the expiration date for your at-home OTC COVID-19 test has been extended and how to find any new expiration date.

Me:

That's a lot of good information. Thank You.

It does seem to confirm that the test I received have spent most of their useful life in storage with only a fraction remaining. From what your saying my guesstimate of manufacturing date was close. To update it with your information, if I'm correct that means they were manufactured between July 17 2023 and Sep 17 2023 and I received them yesterday Oct 3 2024.

So they are good for 16 to 18 months from the date of manufacture. They are in the hands of the "end user" for their remaining 3 months (the extended expiration). That means they were stored i.e.unusable for at least 80% of their useful life (about 81 to 83%), if I did that correctly.

Am I correct or?

It seems like the program needs work, otherwise a lot of money and material is wasted without being able to be useful. Ideally, the test should be usable for much more of their lifespan right?

Other Person:

But they may extend it again, still they can't know how long it's good for until it isn't.

Me:

Is it normal to extend multiple times? That's news to me. I would really appreciate it, if it was 6 more months or more. Partially, I just hate throwing unused stuff away.

It still seems like the 60 day guarantee is a little low, especially given your information. If mine are normal/average, then most should be good at least a year, if not one and a half plus. So the guarantee is still a very small percentage of useful life.

Other Person:

Some of the older ones were extended up to another 12-15 months (over multiple extensions). They just can't say how long it will last until it stops working, so another extension is possible or even likely depending on how good these are. You do have options if they don't extend it to keep from throwing it away unused. You could use it. Lol

__________________________________________ end of thread

I didn't get to respond as the post was removed but I did message her and thank her for all the good information. I do hope I don't use them all because I normally am not sick that many times a year. I received all 4 but I do live alone. So if I use them all, I will have had a very bad couple of months.

Still, maybe I'll be lucky and they extend them again. I also don't know the normal or average only my experience. I only believe that it may be more common because of the very short 60 day guarantee. It would be nice to hear otherwise. I just hope that most test don't sit unusable warehoused for 80% plus of their lifespan. Of course, I don't know, hence the questions.