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by wavemode
626 days ago
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Sure, but isn't most of supply and demand in the market driven by large investors who use such formulas to derive the fair price of the option? That is, if the real price ever differred significantly from what Black-Scholes predicts, wouldn't algorithmic trading very quickly correct this deviation? |
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Using history of volatility is insufficient, because volatility is a forward looking measure. Just because the stock was volatile in the past does not mean it will be in the future, and vice versa. There are even more nuances with this, as volatility is a smile (or a surface), not a singular number https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Volatility_smile.
TLDR Trading in volatility is a very complicated topic. However, volatility is a useful parameter, and black Scholes is typically used to deduce the forward looking volatility from option price, in addition to volatility -> option price.