> Also, isn't Microsoft getting paid back 75% of the profits first, up to their investment, so $13 billion and then 49% for another ~100 billion?
That is roughly true, but also only matters if Microsoft can influence OpenAI policy and chooses violence^1 (taking profit over investment in technology). Otherwise I would expect OpenAI to keep investing all of their income into more AI. Meanwhile OpenAI is hellbent on reaching effective AGI / pushing towards singularity, as long as they keep making progress and having cheap access to capital profitability is not required. So my personal conclusion is to invest in people selling AI shovels because the madness will continue.
Note 1: in my humble opinion Microsoft choosing violence is highly unlikely with Nadella in change.
That is roughly true, but also only matters if Microsoft can influence OpenAI policy and chooses violence^1 (taking profit over investment in technology). Otherwise I would expect OpenAI to keep investing all of their income into more AI. Meanwhile OpenAI is hellbent on reaching effective AGI / pushing towards singularity, as long as they keep making progress and having cheap access to capital profitability is not required. So my personal conclusion is to invest in people selling AI shovels because the madness will continue.
Note 1: in my humble opinion Microsoft choosing violence is highly unlikely with Nadella in change.