In 2023 Google had $307.39B in revenue and $24B in profit last quarter (suggesting ~100B in profit this year). Meanwhile OpenAI is losing money and making no where near these sums.
In fairness, whilst Google did reach profitability early (given the VCs had got their fingers burned on internet companies in 1999, they didn't have much choice) its revenues were lower than OpenAIs at IPO stage. The IPO was both well below Google's original hopes and considered frothy by others in the Valley because at the time the impressive and widely-used tech, limited as a business argument seemed to totally apply to the company that did search really well and had just settled the litigation for cloning Yahoo's Overture advertising idea. And their moat didn't look any better than OpenAIs
And much as AI hype irritates me, the idea that the most popular LLM platform becomes a ubiquitous consumer technology heavily monetised by context-sensitive ads or a B2B service integrated into everything doesn't seem nearly as fanciful as some of the other "next Googles". At the very least they seem to have enough demand for their API and SaaS services to be able stop losing money as soon as VCs stop queuing up to give them more.
Facebook got all the way to an IPO with business fundamentals so bad that after the IPO, Paul Graham wrote a letter to all the then-current YC companies warning them that the Facebook stink was going to foul the whole VC market in the following years. Meta is now worth something like 1.4T.
Facebook made it out by committing click fraud against advertisers on a massive scale, which I don't see as a viable path for sama (even ignoring any legal concerns) considering that openAI isn't a platform company.
Look, I don't care. At some point we're just arguing about the validity of big tech investing. I don't invest money in tech companies. I don't have a strong opinion about Facebook, or, for that matter, about OpenAI. I'm just saying, you don't need a sci-fi story about AGI to see why people would plow this much money into them. That's all.
Google has also magnificently shit the bed with Gemini; their ads business is getting raked over the coals in court; they are a twice convicted monopolist; and are driving away top talent in droves.
It reminds me of the old joke:
Heard about the guy who fell off a skyscraper? On his way down past each floor, he kept saying to reassure himself: So far so good... so far so good... so far so good.
People have been talking about the downfall of Google and FB/Meta for years now and yet every single year both of them still grow, still print money, and run the most used products in the world by far.
Google's generative ai models probably are used more in a day than the rest combined. Google is a highly profitable business that still has never not grown YoY in its nearly 3 decade history.
In you mind you might think Google is going down, but in reality they have only been going up for nearly 3 decades now.
And much as AI hype irritates me, the idea that the most popular LLM platform becomes a ubiquitous consumer technology heavily monetised by context-sensitive ads or a B2B service integrated into everything doesn't seem nearly as fanciful as some of the other "next Googles". At the very least they seem to have enough demand for their API and SaaS services to be able stop losing money as soon as VCs stop queuing up to give them more.