[null_investor]

It might go longer than expected, but always those bubbles tend to pop in 3-5 years, I'd say we're still in the middle of the cycle. Read Sequoia's "AI's $600B Question" post for more information about the money being pumped into AI.

I doubt we'll have a big bubble pop though, big tech will continue to invest in AI at similar values or increase the rate, what may change might be the hardware sales (bear on NVidia), but the run after AI talent will continue to happen for many years and possibly increase. Also, with more specialized hardware people might run away from expensive h100s towards cheaper alternatives or ASIC solutions.

Many small startups without a PMF will all fall apart, though, with OpenAI and other more established players surviving and potentially focusing on more profitable products (like ChatGPT) than newer initiatives or "AGI" research.

[Joaomcabrita]

Totally agree on the small scaleups failing. Even ones with PMF and backing will consolidate - but that's not a total failure I guess :)

Even more true as every single company, even if they have no GenAI whatsoever, is now "AI" splattered by Marketing all over which makes for new real GenAI startups' life even harder to breakthrough and find PMF.