[oco101]

"That is just one very narrow task that basically anyone can do regardless of intelligence or talent. It takes less than a year to train a distracted 16 year old to do it, but three decades to train an AI and even then you probably need to hand tune it for specific locations because it won’t know what do in unusual road layouts."

It takes three decades to train an AI, but of course, like everything humanity does is not linear, it is exponential. Before the Wright brothers, it was believed that powered, controlled, heavier-than-air flight was impossible. Then, in 1903, they achieved the first successful airplane flight, which lasted 12 seconds and covered 120 feet. By 1914, the first commercial flight covered approximately 21 miles and took about 23 minutes. This is just one example and I don't see why AI should be any different

[thebigspacefuck]

On the other hand, airplanes haven’t really improved that much since the 737 was introduced in 1966 and have even gotten worse in some ways (737 Max). We actually don’t know what the AI equivalent of Wright brothers plane is and what the 737 is. Maybe Eliza, 60 years ago, was the Kitty Hawk flight and ChatGPT 4 is the 737.

[fhehdbehevfjhf]

I’m not sure I would say that the 737 Max has gotten worse in “some ways”, by which I assume you are referring to safety.

New aircraft models up to about the 1990s frequently had serious design defects that resulted in fatalities, including the 737 (most notably related to the rudder).

[falcor84]

Indeed, we've seen a slight regression in safety, but definitely not to 1980s levels.

[perilunar]

> Before the Wright brothers, it was believed that powered, controlled, heavier-than-air flight was impossible.

Not by the many people around the world working on the problem, and their supporters.

Also, “powered, controlled, heavier-than-air flight” is exactly was birds, bats, and many insects do — it clearly wasn’t impossible. You need to add a couple more adjectives to qualify what the Wright’s achieved.