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by tempusalaria 622 days ago
On the one hand, the financials are terrible for an IPO in this market.

On the other, Nvidia is worth 3trn so they can sell a pretty good dream of what success looks like to investors.

Personally I would expect them to get a valuation well about the 4bln from the 2021 round, despite the financials not coming close to justifying it.

4 comments

Saying the financials are terrible is a bit of a stretch. Rapidly growing revenue, decreasing loss/share and a loss/share similar to other companies that IPO'ed this year.

The more concerning thing is just not having diversity of revenue, since most of it comes from G42.

Has G42 shipped any working AI models?
afaik they have the current SOTA language models for arabic
IPOs are coming back. Expect pretty big ones in 2025.
It’ll pop. The it’ll rot.
Rev for last 2 years:

$24.6M $78.7M $270M($136.4M)

Sounds like a rocketship. You also get a better sharp if you take some money off the table in the form of leverage and put it in other firms within the industry. E.G. Leveraging your NVDA shares and buying Cerebras.

> take some money off the table in the form of leverage and put it in other firms within the industry. E.G. Leveraging your NVDA shares and buying Cerebras

Please don't do this. Sell your Nvidia shares and rebalance to Cerebras, whatever. But financially leveraging a high-multiple play to buy a correlated asset (which is also high multiple) is begging for a margin call. You may wind up having been right. But leverage forces you to be right and on time.

You are so on point! A huge number of amateur investors get obliterated on this. Your call may be right, but that's no help if you don't survive to see it realized.

You may have a hugely profitable idea that could realize crazy gains over a 5 year horizon, but if you get margin called and liquidated in year 3, you'll end up with nothing.

The magic of investment is compound returns, not crazy leverage. Take some of the crazy Nvidia profits and reinvest it elsewhere where you expect geometric growth. Keep things decently diversified.