[YetAnotherNick]

Assuming AI progress continues, AI could replace both Microsoft's biggest product, OS, and Google's biggest product, search and ads. And there is a huge tail end of things autonomous driving/flying, drug discovery, robotics, programming, healthcare etc.

[adamc]

Too vague. How would it replace Windows? How would it replace search?

The latter is more believable to me, but how would the AI-enhanced version generate the additional revenue that its costs require? And I think a lot of improvement would be required... people are going to be annoyed by things like hallucinations while trying to buy products.

In reality, as soon as a competitor shows up, Google will add whatever copycat features it needs to search. So it isn't clear to me that search is a market that can be won, short of antitrust making changes.

[YetAnotherNick]

You saw "Her" or Iron man? That's how it could replace windows. Basically entire OS working in natural language. Imagine a great human personal assistant who operates computer for you.

And searchGPT could replace Google. Also, wasn't the point of genAI is that it is cheaper than the entire stack of search? At least I know for some recommendation GPT-4 is literally cheaper than many companies in house models and I know companies who saved money using GenAI.

Not saying any of these would likely happen, but still it is not in the fantasy realm.

> people are going to be annoyed by things like hallucinations

That's like saying people are going to be annoyed by no delivery in online shopping. Yes it happened more often earlier, but we are arguing more on the ideal case if it could get solved. That's why I said if AI progress is good in my message, which means we solve hallucination etc.

[adamc]

OK, then I'm pretty sure it won't happen. I don't want to have a personal assistant replace an OS. I don't even want to talk to Alexa. And I'm not alone...

[YetAnotherNick]

I meant human personal assistant as I was clear in previous post. If you are given human personal assistant for free who could replace your screen usage, would you be open to replace your OS with it?

Also we are just talking on theoretical level if AI is able to imitate human assistant(which I personally give 10% chance of happening, but not out of realm of possibility).