[usaar333]

That's not a novel prediction. There were news reports nearly 2 weeks ago about this: https://fortune.com/2024/09/13/sam-altman-openai-non-profit-...

Gwern's more novel prediction track record is calling everyone leaving from OpenAI (Mira was not expected) and general bullishness on scaling years ago. His post from 2 years ago (https://old.reddit.com/r/mlscaling/comments/uznkhw/gpt3_2nd_...) is mostly correct, though incorrectly believed large companies would not deploy user-facing LLMs (granted I think much of this is reasonably obvious?). And Gato2 seems to have never happened.

His overall predictions? I can find his prediction book which he heavily used in 2010 (https://predictionbook.com/users/gwern/page/2?filter=judged&... Brier score of 0.16 is quite good, but this isn't superforecaster level (there's people with Brier scores below 0.1 on that site).

Overall, I see no reason to believe Gwern's numbers over say the consensus prediction at metaculus, even though yes, I do love reading his analysis.