[acdha]

It’s too conspiratorial for my tastes, too, but I think you have to at least evaluate it given how much advanced notice they had. It certainly wouldn’t be unprecedented for someone to think they could spin things in a more favorable direction than turned out to be the case.

That said, if I had to bet my money is on simple arrogance. When you’re that consistently outclassing your opponent it’s easy to assume that’s always true as opposed to to _mostly_ true. We had similar problems with 9/11 where FBI offices were playing internal political games because they just weren’t serious enough about major domestic attacks.