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by nostrademons
640 days ago
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Couple ways to think about it: One is the Fed dot plots that the Fed puts out with each FOMC statement. These are a poll of Fed governors about what they think interest rates will be like at various points in the future. The midpoint of the current spread is about 3%. You can Google for past FOMC statements and look up historical data, but it's stayed at around 3% since at least 2018, with a slight dip to maybe 2.5% in 2020/2021: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/fed-dot-plot-suggests-central... The other is the rates on 3Y Treasury Bonds, which measure what bond traders consensus expectation for the average interest rate over that 3Y period will be. To go out further (and minimize the impact of short-term fluctuations), you could also go out to 5Y. Currently, both are trading at 3.5%, which indicates that the market expects that the Fed will equilibrate at about 3.5%. https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/US3Y https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/US5Y |
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