[chaosist]

I don't work in tech either and completely agree.

These processes aren't cyclical, they are non-ergodic, one off regimes that once we visit a specific regime, we will not return to that regime.

As someone who has done quite a bit of t-bill and chill investing this regime, I don't see how we can afford to lower interest rates anywhere near like we did the last decade. I am good with 50 bps but it can only go so low this time to keep US government debt attractive.

Then I think of how I could have been a really shitty front end React developer circa 2019. There is no way I could ever get a job doing that now when I see what I can do with Cursor/Sonnet as the same shitty React dev.