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by JanSolo 637 days ago
> I still struggle to see how this ends up favorable for Tesla in the long run.

They're expanding their customer-base by maybe 2x or more. Those new customers will be be giving recurring payments to Tesla. For vehicles that Tesla didn't build. How is that not favourable?

2 comments

Tesla doesn't break out the details, but I think it's generally understood among investors that they just break even on Supercharger. Their profit comes from their cars, and the Supercharger network was a competitive advantage to get people to buy the cars.

I think they opened up the Supercharger network to ensure that the US didn't establish CCS as the standard and overtake Superchargers, such that Teslas have a competitive dis -advantage, but I don't think they're particularly thrilled to have all these other companies using their chargers.

People seem to think they're raking it in with the Superchargers, but distributing electricity is a low margin business. Same with gas stations where the money mostly comes from the convenience store part of it and such.

Gas is lower margin than the other things in a convenience store, but they sell enough more gas than anything else that much of the money is there. I haven't checked in 10 years, but at one time I did read the share holders information from a convenience store and for that brand it was about 1/3 gas, 1/3 tobacco, 1/3 everything else. Tobacco is very high margin but very few people buy it. The everything is is a nice high margin, and most people buy, but they don't buy every trip. Gas is what gets people in the doors and often is all people get.
> they just break even on Supercharger

So far, sure, but that can change. When most customers are non Teslas, it makes no sense to keep prices low.

This goes both ways -- historically the other charging networks were J1772 or CCS (with a few CHAdeMO to support Nissan Leafs), but now Electrify America, EVgo, etc. have been retrofitting or newly installing a mix of CCS and NACS cables onto their L3 chargers. This increases the available charger footprint for Teslas as well.
Where I’m located, Supercharger prices are ~4x business electric rates. That’s something like $15 profit per charge. No idea on infrastructure costs or usage though.
Business electric service often has a demand charge in addition to the usage rates; superchargers could easily incur a lot of cost on that element.
Tesla’s entire business revolves around batteries. They have a huge opportunity to install batteries onsite that spread usage over times when high demand charges don’t apply. There’s some loss in that, but still could make sense if demand charges are really high. I’ve been waiting to see Tesla roll something like this out, but presumably it’s not pressing right now.
Tesla chargers are CCS. It's just that in the US they use a different plug, in Europe Tesla chargers uses CCS-2 connectors.
> Tesla chargers are CCS.

This is misleading and not entirely true.

Older Tesla chargers did not use CCS to communicate. My 2019 Model 3 doesn't support CCS at all. When I plug into a Supercharger, it's not using CCS to communicate with the charger, it's using Tesla's proprietary CAN bus protocol. Teslas made before 2021 need an ECU retrofit to support CCS.

Pretty much all the old Teslas in Norway have been retrofitted to allow them to connect to CCS only chargers as far as I can tell. Had mine (2015 S 70D) done years ago when it became clear that future Tesla chargers would be CCS only.
Almost no Teslas were manufactured pre-2019 vs post-2019.
I think between 15 and 20% were build pre-2019. The number of non-CCS is actually on the higher end of this, as component shortages caused quite a few to be built without CCS support in 2020.
Can confirm. My 2020 MX does not have CCS capabilities.
OK, so less than 20%. In five years it’ll probably be closer to <5-10%.
The downside is that when people are considering which car to buy, Tesla has enjoyed their charging network as a strong selling point that other automakers don't have
But they gain the selling point that charging Teslas is cheaper.
How much will owners of other manufacturers' cars pay for electricity at the Superchargers, compared to those who have Teslas? The article doesn't mention this (or I missed it). I'm curious to know what this adds up to over the life of a car.
Short term it will likely be the same - Telsa has the most chargers, but they do not have a monopoly and they will be forced to charge the same to all just to compete.
Most places it's not like gas stations where there's 3 on the same block and they all have exactly the same price all the time, people are going to stop at whatever charger is located where they need it and pay whatever the price is as long as it's within reason.
A quick search suggests there's around 145,000 gas stations. This article mentions Tesla has 17,800 supercharger stations. I didn't care enough to look up the station counts for the other EV charging companies. But that Tesla figure is around 12% of the gas station total, so let's say the total number of EV charging stations is somewhere between 15% and 20% of the gas station total.

I could easily see EV charging stations approach the level of saturation of gas stations in the next 10 years.

Yes, today people are going to stop wherever there's a nearby charging station. But that's going to change, and fairly quickly.

The is true today. However EVs are becoming more common and chargers are being built. In a few years chargers will be more common and have to compete on price. Today Tesla can get away with charging more to some customers - those people will figure it out though and eventually they will have enough options that they can go elsewhere. It is hard enough to brand gasoline (you can have a brand specific additive package most don't but they do exist) electrons are even more identical.
Something I hope is legislated away in the future. Can you imagine if the norm was that you got a different price for gas at gas stations depending on who owns the gas station and who manufactured your car?
If my car comes with a gas station’s loyalty card I don’t really see a problem.