[ilamont]

Phase 2 is not a slam dunk. Much more work remains, and under the guidance of a CEO who has zero drug development experience and a track record of management incompetence:

- lying about growth

- pushing out the cofounder

- never making a profit

- hack that went undiscovered for months

About the only area she's had success is raising money and that's in large part thanks to being a member of the Silicon Valley elite.

[dekhn]

you left out "ignored a letter from the FDA telling them to shut down"

[LarsDu88]

Mathematically, the chance of a drug going from phase 2 to phase 3 is roughly 30%

This can be modeled with a binomial distribution as 1-probability of both failing. That comes out to 1-(.7^2) which is 51% of at least one drug reaching phase 3.

There is literally a coin flip chance the company will reach the stage where there is another coin flip it will be worth billions (I believe ~50% of phase 3 drugs go to market), but thanks to the messaging of the CEO, right now it seems like there is a near 0% chance investors (which include former company employees) would benefit from this.

[gosub100]

Could the hack have been part of the plan all along to depress the share price to make for a cheap buy-out?