[greyface-]

The Ethereum DAO rollback fork was (for better or worse) widely supported by the community. It's not likely that a court-ordered fork to reassign Satoshi's coins to Wright would have anywhere near the same level of support.

[samtheprogram]

But if it were to happen, what are the chances a fork of Bitcoin (that doesn’t respect this ruling) becomes more mainstream than Bitcoin?

Less than 10%, and that’s generous.

[throwaway48540]

I see it the other way. 10% chance that the Craitoshi fork of BTC becomes mainstream.

[pests]

Agreed.

I was the one to bring up the DAO, but the situation is completely different when you get into the details.

The DAO was hugely hyped by early eth adopters. If you were into eth, you were into The DAO. For the DAO to be hacked was like eth being hacked. When vitalik and the eth devs supported it, it was easy for the community to fall in line.

Any Craig shenanigans would have absolute 0 support and be the exact opposite.