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Interesting. Another take on that split could be engineers split to upper class AI engineers and lower class AI prompt developers, aka ai builders vs ai appliers.

Alternatively, I’ve thought a bit about this previously and have a slight different hypothesis. Businesses are ran by “PM types”.the only reason that developers have jobs is because pm types need technical devs to build their vision. (Obviously I’m making broad strokes here as there are also plenty of founders that ARE the dev). Now, if ai makes technical building more open to the masses, I could foresee a scenario where devs and pms actually converge into a single job title that eats up the technical-leaning PMs and the “PM-y” devs. Devs will shift to be more PM-y or else be cut out of the job market because there is less need for non-ambitious code monkeys. The easier it becomes for the masses to build because of AI, the less opportunity there is for technical grunt work. If before it took a PM 30 minutes to get together the requirements for a small task that took the entry level dev 8 hours to do, then it made sense. Now if AI makes it so a technical PM could build the feature in an hour, maybe it just makes sense to have the PM do the implementation and cut out the code monkey. And if the PM is doing the implementation, even if using some mythical AI superpower, that’s still going to have companies selecting for more technical PM’s. In this scenario I think non-technical PMs and non-pm-y devs would find themselves either without jobs or at greatly reduced wages.