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by myrmidon
641 days ago
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Takes me back... There was significant hype around those things when they first managed to build them at scale (~15 years ago), because they were promising for low power, high density persistent storage and are also academically interesting: The "concept" of memristors was explored over 50 years ago (they are passive components that couple electrical charge and magnetical flux, just like a resistor does with current/voltage, a capacitor with voltage/charge or an inductivity with current/flux). But I think the main problem was that they never managed to scale up the clock speeds sufficiently, even though structure size (=> density) was already highly promising from the start. Maybe in a slightly different history with some discoveries in different orders these could have replaced flash memory in SSDs completely. But that whole episode thought me that betting on early technology is hard, and always a risky business, because no matter how promising an approach looks, if it turns out that you can not find the necessary improvements in only a single dimension, then the whole thing is kinda doomed and will probably never be competitive (=> a highly relevant insight especially when speculating about things like novel battery chemistries or the like). |
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I don't know, we've been working on digital computers since at least the late 1800s. Sometimes technology just takes a while.
That does make it hard to gamble on it if the time horizon is longer than you need to make a profit.
But I don't think we should convince ourselves that a technology that takes longer than 15 years to become profitable is doomed. If we thought like that we'd still be subsistence hunter gatherers.