[nopinsight]

Kelly Criterion

Betting more than the Kelly fraction increases the risk of ruin, especially in the long run.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kelly_criterion

Note: Not saying that this is applicable in the original post's situation. It's relevant to the parent comment though, and very useful in many situations, such as investing.

[n4r9]

What if I wanted to maximise the bottom 5th or 10th percentile of wealth?

[energy123]

Fractional Kelly?

[nighthawk454]

Yes, precisely. Although that's more about bet sizing for optimal return in the long run, not quite about binary choice of whether or not to play. But conceptually bang on, I had it in mind