| This wave, whether or not it's a bubble, has very little in common with the dotcom era. It's simply a bad analogy. The dotcom era was full of unprofitable startups pumping up the stock price in all sorts of ways, as they were completely dependent on continues capital flows from investors to stay afloat. Also, a lot of that capital came from retail investors in various forms. The AI wave that is currently ongoing is for the most part funded by some of the largest and most profitable corporations on the planet. Companies like Alphabet, Meta, Tesla/X, Amazon and (to a lesser extent) Microsoft still have founders that either control or provide a direction for these companies. What drives this way is the fact that most of these founders have a strong belief. We know, for instance, that Larry Page and Elon Musk had a disagreement about the future role of AGI/ASI about 15 years ago, leading to Elon Musk helping to found OpenAI to make sure that Google would not gain a monopoly. These are strong convictions held by very powerful people that have been held for decades. Short term stock market fluctuations are not going to suddenly collapse this "bubble". As long as these founders continue to believe that AGI is close, they will continue to push, even if the stock market stops it support to the push. SSI may fail, of course. But Ilya has a rumor of (from people like Hinton and Elon) as being perhaps the greatest and most capable visionary in the business. |