| So, your argument is that groups like ISIS and Hamas - Don't really want to hurt a lot of people that way
- Couldn't access any dangerous ingredients, even if they had the know-how
- Are too dumb to build these things I agree with reason #3. That is why I don't want to give out open-source models which are world-class experts in chemistry, biology, logistics, operations, and tutoring dumb people. I disagree with your belief that motivated people with a next-generation generative model doing their planning could not source dangerous ingredients. I'm not going to say much about CBRN in particular, but e.g. ANFO bombs are prevented by monitoring fertilizer sales; nobody tries to monitor natural gas sales or make sure some compound out in the hills isn't setting up their own Haber-Bosch process. I am also opposed to security theater. Run the numbers on TSA, and it's easy to see that it's a net negative even if it cost 0 tax dollars. But not all government-led safety efforts are theater; seatbelt laws saved a lot of lives, indoor smoking bans saved a lot of lives, OSHA saved a lot of lives. We know there are folks out there who want to kill a lot of people. We know their capabilities range from "grabbing the nearest hard or pointy object and swinging it" to "medium-scale CBRN attacks." Pushing each of these kinds of people one or two rungs up the capabilities ladder is a real danger; nothing imaginary about it. |