[refurb]

> So much of this is hindsight bias though. There were no shortage of people with ideas and companies pursuing obesity drugs through a number of different pathways. Only in hindsight does it seem "genius" that Thomsen persisted and succeeded where nobody else did. But there are dozens, hundreds, of other smart people who were pursuing other pathways who did just as much stubborn work but didn't get a result. That's just pharmaceuticals.

Exactly.

There are plenty of examples where the opposite choice was made - argue for continued development despite high uncertainty.

The CETP inhibitors is a good one. Pfizer flushed several billion dollars down the drain with the decision to push it through phase 3.