[jimmont]

prelude to recession, as visible in Sahm rule trends at https://fred.stlouisfed.org/release?rid=456 as well as when the 10 2 yield curve approaches +0.5 https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/T10Y2Y with near term interest rate cuts, along with other indicators; guessing arrives early next year;

[jimmont]

the article is consistent with sticky cpi, as can be seen in the transient and sticky cpi and wage tracking, in fact we appear to be in deflationary territory but I'm not an economist so my interpretation might be off https://www.atlantafed.org/research/inflationproject/stickyp... https://www.atlantafed.org/chcs/wage-growth-tracker

[Izkata]

Not a prelude, the Sahm rule is an indicator a recession has already begun.