[vimax]

How do you expect insurance companies to create actuarial tables for one-off government R&D projects?

[tedunangst]

Insurance companies manage to find ways to price insurance for Hollywood actors storming off set.

[JCharante]

Same way insurance companies insure satellite launches. Lots of guesses and getting another insurance company to underwrite their insurance deals.

[NavinF]

Just estimate the probability of payout. Yes you can do this for non-repeating, hard-to-model events: https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/in-continued-defense-of-non...

I do it all the time without making actuarial tables, as do insurance companies.