[mrgoldenbrown]

Personal experience:

Counterexample 1: company had two products, one java one c++ based. Founders decided to focus on one product to extend runway. Everyone on 2nd product team laid off, regardless of perf reviews.

Counterexample 2: layoff needed to boost short term profit metrics for potential sale of company. Since focus is cost cutting, not long term viability, expensive folks targeted (ie senior high performers)

Counterexample 3 (union shop, yes rare I know but gov and academia often have union IT workers. Layoffs are purely seniority based (as in most recently joined union = first to be laid off)