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by __egb__ 655 days ago
Are you under the mistaken impression that hurricanes are spread evenly across the season? I don’t understand how you can speak in the past tense when the season isn’t over for another three months. The historical peak is September 10th and the active part of the season is considered to start around August 20th.
1 comments
hagbard_c 655 days ago
Weather is not climate and hurricanes are weather. What, then, does climate mean? There is a rough consensus on that, climate is '30 years of weather trends'. In other words - used by NOAA among others - 'climate is what you expect, weather is what you get'. Whether or not the current hurricane season turns out to be 'unimpressive' as it currently seems to be or whether it develops into something more 'exiting' is not that interesting seen in the light of climatology. What is interesting it the trend over a longer period [1] which shows a clear reduction in the number of tropical cyclones (typhoons, tropical storms and hurricanes) in most basins (regions for tropical cyclone formation, roughly corresponding with sea basins) with the exception of the North Atlantic region which saw a decline from the 1870s to the 1970s followed by an increase back to the level of around 1900 [2]. This increase in observed Atlantic hurricanes in combination with an observed decrease in the number of hurricanes making landfall is probably due to improvements in weather observations instead of a true increase in frequency [3].

When a hurricane does make landfall the trend is for them to be more expensive and less deadly, the former due to the fact that areas previously deemed unsuitable for construction like flood plains and other low-lying areas have been used for construction, the latter due to better prognoses.

[1] https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-022-01388-4

[2] https://media.springernature.com/full/springer-static/image/...

[3] https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-021-24268-5

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hagbard_c 655 days ago
To the downvoter(s) may I ask to provide us with the reasons for the downvotes? Without such it just looks like a knee-jerk downvote for something which goes against the preferred narrative. Do you disagree with the quoted articles and if so where do you think they are in error?
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